Match Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. May 3, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.76 — +12.0% better than the market.

Fatih Karagümrük hosts Genclerbirligi in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. The home side’s defensive solidity contrasts with Genclerbirligi’s modest attacking threat, suggesting a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances.

Home’s compact defense may frustrate the visitors’ attack
Genclerbirligi’s recent struggles limit their scoring potential
Match tempo likely to be moderate, favoring cautious play

Expect a tight encounter with under 2.5 goals likely, as both teams prioritize defensive organization over offensive risk.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.76 ✓ Cashed

AI 64% Implied 57% +0.76u

+76%

ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

KAR 1 – 0 GEN

37%

Possession (%)

63%

0.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.14

6

Total Shots

13

2

Shots on Target

4

3

Shots off Target

9

6

Shots Inside Box

11

1

Corner Kicks

6

1

Offsides

1

13

Fouls

9

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

2

Yellow Cards

2

3

Goalkeeper Saves

1

Match recap

Fatih Karagümrük beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.14 to 0.81. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 6, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.63 units (Brier 0.224).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.76	—	64%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS No	1.88	—	58%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.60	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.19	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.43	—	33%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.16	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.82	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.74	—	33%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Away Win	3.06	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.94	—	38%	Cashed	+1.94	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.41	—	60%	Cashed	+0.41	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.21	—	82%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.62	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.63u	−11% ROI

Match Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. May 3, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.76 — +12.0% better than the market.

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled