Match Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor April 5, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.04 — +11.9% better than the market.

Rizespor arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger attack faces a disciplined Fatih Karagümrük defense, hinting at a tactical battle where Rizespor’s offensive pressure could be key. Home momentum is limited, and the match may lean towards a cautious pace with moderate goal expectations.

Rizespor’s offensive edge against a solid home defense
Fatih Karagümrük’s inconsistent form at home
Likely balanced tempo favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.04 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

KAR 4-4-2 · RIZ 4-1-4-1

KAR · 4-4-2 4-1-4-1 · RIZ

23 Larsson

📊 Statistics

KAR 2 – 1 RIZ

37%

Possession (%)

63%

1.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.55

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fatih Karagümrük beat Rizespor 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 3 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.94 units (Brier 0.228).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.47	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.04	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.22	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.77	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.65	—	50%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.14	—	25%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.42	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	75%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.58	—	51%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.02	—	25%	Cashed	+2.02	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	71%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.94u	−17% ROI

Match Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor April 5, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.04 — +11.9% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled