Match Samsunspor vs Kayserispor March 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.87 — +10.1% better than the market.

Samsunspor Looks to Leverage Home Strength

Samsunspor holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a notable home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. Their offensive capabilities face a less resilient Kayserispor defense, while recent form shows Samsunspor slightly ahead in momentum. Expect a compact home block with effective set-piece threats and a tactical pressing edge to limit Kayserispor’s chances.

Home side’s defensive solidity versus away’s moderate attack
Home momentum from recent results
Potential for a controlled, moderately paced game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.87 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 53% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAM 4-2-3-1 · KAY 4-4-2

SAM · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · KAY

9 Marius

📊 Statistics

SAM 2 – 1 KAY

67%

Possession (%)

33%

2.10

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.74

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

68%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.10 to 0.74. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.52 units (Brier 0.138).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.87	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.05	—	57%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	1.98	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.07	—	41%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	46%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.89	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.50	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	82%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.45	—	57%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.32	—	79%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	89%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.37	—	67%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.81	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.62	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.10	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.52u	−27% ROI