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Home › England › Premier League › Fulham — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Fulham vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Fulham
Fulham
Home · last 5 W L L D W
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 11:30
1:0
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Craven Cottage · London Referee M. Oliver

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · FUL
28%
Best 2.65
Draw
25%
Best 3.64
Away Win · AST
47%
Best 2.75
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.33
Fair odds
3.94
book 4.33 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (75%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.57
Show model details
Implied probability 38.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 27.9%
Odds 2.78
Show model details
Implied probability 36%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 25%
Odds 3.74
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 49.9%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 25.4%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 71.3%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 28.7%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7.6%
Odds 13.50
Show model details
Implied probability 7.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 74.7%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 47.1%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 27.9%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 72.1%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
FUL – AST @ 4.33
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →