Nottingham Forest vs Burnley 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.98 — +9.3% better than the market.

Nottingham Forest hold a clear quality edge and home momentum after recent solid results, while Burnley struggle for form and face a tough defensive test. Forest's compact block and set-piece threat could stifle Burnley's moderate attack, suggesting a low-scoring encounter. The home side's defensive discipline contrasts with Burnley's leaky backline, hinting at a controlled tempo and limited chances.

Home defensive solidity vs away attack
Recent form favors Forest
Likely cautious pace with few goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.98 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

NOT 4-2-3-1 · BUR 4-2-3-1

NOT · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BUR

11 Wood

Subs used · NOT

42'

Cunha ↑ ·

Murillo ↓

46'

Jesus ↑ ·

Bakwa ↓

76'

Yates ↑ ·

Wood ↓

88'

Morato ↑ ·

Hutchinson ↓

89'

Dominguez ↑ ·

Gibbs-White ↓

Subs used · BUR

64'

Foster ↑ ·

Edwards ↓

76'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

83'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

83'

Laurent ↑ ·

Florentino ↓

84'

Broja ↑ ·

Flemming ↓

Statistics

NOT 4 – 1 BUR

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.18

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 4 – 1

Cunha ↓ · Murillo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

42'

45'

⚽

Z. Flemming

Assist · Q. Hartman · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Igor Jesus ↓ · D. Bakwa ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

M. Gibbs-White

1–1

⚽

62'

64'

⇄

L. Foster ↓ · M. Edwards ↑

Substitution 1

M. Gibbs-White

Assist · O. Hutchinson · 2–1

⚽

69'

75'

▮

Florentino Luís

Yellow Card

R. Yates ↓ · C. Wood ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

⇄

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 2

M. Gibbs-White

Assist · R. Yates · 3–1

⚽

77'

80'

▮

Kyle Walker

Yellow Card

83'

⇄

L. Tchaouna ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

J. Laurent ↓ · Florentino ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑

Substitution 5

Morato ↓ · O. Hutchinson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

N. Dominguez ↓ · M. Gibbs-White ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Igor Jesus

Assist · N. Dominguez · 4–1

⚽

90'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.18 to 0.36. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 4, 4 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.18 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Z. Flemming (45'), M. Gibbs-White (62'), M. Gibbs-White (69'), M. Gibbs-White (77'), Igor Jesus (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.07 units (Brier 0.176).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.12	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.98	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.65	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.84	—	44%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.55	—	68%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.13	—	89%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.18	—	68%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	24%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	69%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Away Win	7.11	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.31	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.07u	−24% ROI

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled