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Home › England › Premier League › Chelsea — Manchester City

Predictions by Market: Chelsea vs Manchester City

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 15:30
0:3
Full-time
Manchester City
Manchester City
D W W D L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Chris Kavanagh, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · CHE
23%
Best 3.50
Draw
24%
Best 3.88
Away Win · MCI
54%
Best 1.95
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.48
Fair odds
2.26
book 2.48 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (56%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 53.6%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 23.8%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 22.7%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 44.2%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 55.8%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.53
Show model details
Implied probability 39.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.2%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 22.7%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 46.4%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 77.3%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
CHE – MCI @ 2.48
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →