Match Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.84 — +13.3% better than the market.

Utrecht holds a clear quality edge and home momentum against Fortuna Sittard. Their stronger defensive shape and superior recent form suggest they can control the game tempo, limiting Fortuna's attacking threat. Expect a compact block from the visitors, but Utrecht’s pressing and set-piece threat could unlock chances.

Home side’s defensive solidity vs away’s moderate offense
Utrecht’s recent winning form contrasts with Fortuna’s struggles
Likely a controlled pace with under 3 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.84 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 54% +0.84u

+84%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

UTR 4-2-3-1 · SIT 4-2-3-1

UTR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · SIT

91 Haller

📊 Statistics

UTR 2 – 0 SIT

58%

Possession (%)

42%

2.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.48

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Utrecht beat Fortuna Sittard 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.09 to 0.48. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 13, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.88 units (Brier 0.140).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.84	—	62%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
BTTS No	2.44	—	43%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.63	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.00	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.88	—	41%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Home Win	1.50	—	68%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	88%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.20	—	68%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Draw	4.93	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.11	—	80%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Away Win	5.76	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.40	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−2.88u	−19% ROI