PEC Zwolle vs Heracles 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.65 — +11.9% better than the market.

PEC Zwolle holds a clear quality edge over Heracles, backed by stronger recent form and a solid home defensive record. Their ability to control the game and limit Heracles’ attacking threats should be key. Expect a measured tempo with a focus on defensive organization and exploiting set-piece chances.

Home momentum and defensive solidity favor Zwolle
Heracles struggles to break down compact blocks
Moderate pace likely with under 3.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.65 ✓ Cashed

AI 68% Implied 61% +0.65u

+65%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ZWO 4-2-3-1 · HER 4-2-3-1

ZWO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · HER

10 Kostons

Statistics

ZWO 1 – 0 HER

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.62

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.00

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 9, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.27 units (Brier 0.171).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.65	—	68%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.50	—	47%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
BTTS No	2.21	—	47%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.63	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.30	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.50	—	67%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	24%	Cashed	+4.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	88%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.20	—	67%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.93	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	93%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.76	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.40	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.27u	−2% ROI

PEC Zwolle vs Heracles 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled