Match Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam April 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.66 — +8.1% better than the market.

Telstar hosts Sparta Rotterdam in a clash where Sparta holds a slight quality edge and better recent form. Telstar’s solid defensive shape could frustrate Sparta’s moderate attack, but the visitors’ pressing and compact block may create chances on the break. Home momentum is visible but tempered by Sparta’s resilience and tactical discipline.

Sparta’s defensive solidity vs Telstar’s attacking attempts
Home side’s recent wins boosting confidence
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.66 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 60% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STO 3-4-2-1 · SPA 3-4-1-2

STO · 3-4-2-1 3-4-1-2 · SPA

37 Duijn

📊 Statistics

STO 4 – 1 SPA

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.70

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Telstar beat Sparta Rotterdam 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 1.04. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.70 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.36 units (Brier 0.218).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.66	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.75	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.63	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.75	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.60	—	57%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.02	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.44	—	35%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
Home Win	2.51	—	31%	Cashed	+1.51	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.86	—	31%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.75	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.50	—	59%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	56%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.19	—	79%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.36u	−20% ROI