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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles — Ajax

Predictions Heracles vs Ajax April 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Heracles
Heracles
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 19:00
0:3
Full-time
Ajax
Ajax
D L D W D Away · last 5
Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
Home Win · HER
14%
Best 5.50
Draw
21%
Best 4.50
Away Win · AJA
66%
Best 1.53
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.29
book 2.55 · +11.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +11.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (56%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 65.7%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 20.8%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 13.5%
Odds 5.40
Show model details
Implied probability 18.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 65.2%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 34.8%
Odds 2.35
Show model details
Implied probability 42.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.2%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.2%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 65.7%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 13.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 34.3%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 86.6%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
HER – AJA @ 2.55
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →