Match NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard February 28, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

NEC Nijmegen holds a clear quality edge over Fortuna Sittard, supported by a strong home momentum and a potent attack that challenges Fortuna's defense. The home side's recent form shows resilience with multiple wins, while Fortuna's away struggles and lower offensive threat suggest difficulty breaking down NEC's compact block. Expect a controlled tempo with NEC pressing for goals, leveraging their set-piece threat and home confidence.

NEC's offensive edge vs Fortuna's defense
Home momentum and form superiority
Fortuna's limited away scoring potential

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NIJ 3-4-1-2 · SIT 4-2-3-1

NIJ · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · SIT

18 Ogawa

📊 Statistics

NIJ 2 – 3 SIT

68%

Possession (%)

32%

1.46

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

67%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard won 3–2 away at NEC Nijmegen. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.45 to 1.46. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.34 units (Brier 0.303).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.48	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.84	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.13	—	44%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.05	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.47	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	89%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	—	66%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	58%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.88	—	30%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.18	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	5.10	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	—	85%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Under 0.5	22.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.50	—	11%	Cashed	+5.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.65	—	11%	Cashed	+3.65	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+4.34u	+26% ROI

Match NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard February 28, 2026 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled