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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior

Predictions by Market: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Fri 20 Feb · 19:00
2:1
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Sitard Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · SIT
50%
Best 2.15
Draw
26%
Best 3.50
Away Win · EXC
25%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 13.00
Fair odds
11.36
book 13.00 · +14.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 9% · EV +14.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (91%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 49.6%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 24.5%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 25.9%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 54%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 46%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 28.6%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 25.2%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.8%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.2%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 71.4%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 49.3%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 49.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 24.5%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 50.4%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
SIT – EXC @ 13.00
+14.3%
Edge
Forecast →