Match Fulham vs Burnley March 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.94 — +9.0% better than the market.

Fulham holds a clear quality edge over Burnley, boosted by a solid home momentum and a pressing edge in attack versus Burnley's defense. Their recent form shows signs of resilience, while Burnley struggles to convert chances against a compact Fulham backline. The match pace is likely moderate, favoring a controlled Fulham approach.

Home advantage with superior defensive solidity
Fulham's attacking threat against Burnley's defense
Recent form favors Fulham's consistency

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.94 ✗ Lost

AI 56% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FUL 4-2-3-1 · BUR 4-2-3-1

FUL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BUR

9 Muniz

Subs used · FUL

61'

Chukwueze ↑ ·

Bobb ↓

61'

Sessegnon ↑ ·

Robinson ↓

82'

Jimenez ↑ ·

Muniz ↓

82'

Smith Rowe ↑ ·

King ↓

87'

Reed ↑ ·

Wilson ↓

Subs used · BUR

18'

Ugochukwu ↑ ·

Mejbri ↓

78'

Barnes ↑ ·

Ward-Prowse ↓

78'

Edwards ↑ ·

Foster ↓

87'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Walker ↓

📊 Statistics

FUL 3 – 1 BUR

55%

Possession (%)

45%

3.24

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.24

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 3 – 1

18'

⇄

L. Ugochukwu ↓ · H. Mejbri ↑

Substitution 1

37'

▮

Josh Laurent

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

Antonee Robinson

Yellow Card

▮

55'

60'

⚽

Z. Flemming

Assist · L. Foster · 0–1

S. Chukwueze ↓ · O. Bobb ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

R. Sessegnon ↓ · A. Robinson ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

64'

▮

James Ward-Prowse

Yellow Card

J. King

1–1

⚽

67'

H. Wilson

Assist · J. King · 2–1

⚽

73'

78'

⇄

A. Barnes ↓ · J. Ward-Prowse ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

M. Edwards ↓ · L. Foster ↑

Substitution 3

R. Jimenez ↓ · Rodrigo Muniz ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

E. Smith Rowe ↓ · J. King ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

H. Reed ↓ · H. Wilson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

⇄

L. Tchaouna ↓ · K. Walker ↑

Substitution 4

R. Jimenez (P)

Penalty · 3–1

⚽

90'

Alex Iwobi

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

90+3'

▮

Josh Laurent

Red Card

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Fulham beat Burnley 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.24 to 1.24. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 9, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Z. Flemming (60'), J. King (67'), H. Wilson (73'), R. Jimenez (90'). Josh Laurent was sent off in the 90+3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.55 units (Brier 0.182).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.04	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.94	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.62	—	66%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.98	—	44%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.46	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.92	—	43%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.16	—	89%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.23	—	66%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.20	—	23%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.20	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	69%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Away Win	6.40	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.58	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.55u	−21% ROI