Match Feyenoord vs Heracles January 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 2.03 — +12.9% better than the market.

Feyenoord enter this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a stronger attack and solid defensive shape. Their pressing and set-piece threat should challenge Heracles, who struggle away and show patchy form. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but Feyenoord's compact block and superior finishing could limit chances for the visitors.

Home attacking edge against weaker away defense
Recent form favors Feyenoord's consistency
Heracles' defensive frailties likely exposed at De Kuip

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 2.03 ✗ Lost

AI 56% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FEY 4-3-3 · HER 4-4-2

FEY · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · HER

16 Sauer

📊 Statistics

FEY 4 – 2 HER

66%

Possession (%)

34%

1.48

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.05

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Feyenoord beat Heracles 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.05 to 1.48. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.48 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.47 units (Brier 0.089).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	2.03	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.14	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	54%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.91	—	44%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 1.5	8.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.80	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Home Win	1.27	—	78%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.02	—	78%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	26.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.12	—	85%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.37	—	65%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.10	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	12.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	7.90	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.47u	−38% ROI