Match Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda December 7, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.15 — +11.7% better than the market.

Sparta Rotterdam holds a clear quality edge at home, supported by a stronger defensive setup and a slight offensive advantage over NAC Breda. Despite recent mixed form, Sparta's home momentum and compact block could stifle Breda's attack. The pace suggests a moderately open game, but both sides may struggle to break through consistently.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
Sparta's home edge in tactical discipline
Moderate tempo likely to limit goal frenzy

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.15 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 47% +1.15u

+115%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPA 4-2-3-1 · BRE 5-3-2

SPA · 4-2-3-1 5-3-2 · BRE

9 Lauritsen

📊 Statistics

SPA 1 – 0 BRE

41%

Possession (%)

59%

2.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sparta Rotterdam beat NAC Breda 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.43 to 1.32. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 12, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 14 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.66 units (Brier 0.180).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.12	—	54%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.15	—	52%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS No	2.30	—	48%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.83	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.79	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.49	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	73%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	79%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	27%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.56	—	54%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.30	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.66u	−4% ROI

Match Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda December 7, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.15 — +11.7% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled