Match Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles November 29, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.22 — +12.1% better than the market.

Fortuna Sittard holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid defensive setup at home, which could frustrate Heracles. The home side's recent form shows signs of momentum, contrasting with Heracles' inconsistent results. Expect a tactical battle where Fortuna's pressing and defensive discipline might limit Heracles' attacking threats.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive attempts
Fortuna's recent positive form
Moderate pace suggested by odds favors structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.22 ✓ Cashed

AI 51% Implied 45% +1.22u

+122%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SIT 4-2-3-1 · HER 4-4-2

SIT · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · HER

9 Sierhuis

📊 Statistics

SIT 1 – 1 HER

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.84

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.57

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard and Heracles drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.84 to 0.57. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 6, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.63 units (Brier 0.166).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.18	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.42	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.22	—	51%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.60	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.71	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.75	—	47%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.70	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.40	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	—	71%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	78%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.60	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.59	—	52%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.65	—	25%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	74%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Away Win	3.40	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.63u	−15% ROI

Match Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles November 29, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.22 — +12.1% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled