Match Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard November 22, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.12 — +13.5% better than the market.

Fortuna Sittard arrives at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they could control the game despite being away. Sparta's home defensive solidity may keep the match tight, but Fortuna's pressing and slightly superior offensive threat hint at a competitive encounter. The pace looks moderate, favoring a balanced tactical battle.

Fortuna's defensive resilience challenges Sparta's attack
Home side's compact block may limit goals
Recent form favors the visitors' momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.12 ✓ Cashed

AI 54% Implied 47% +1.12u

+112%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPA 4-2-3-1 · SIT 4-2-3-1

SPA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · SIT

9 Lauritsen

📊 Statistics

SPA 1 – 1 SIT

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.84

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.17

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.84 to 1.17. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.41 units (Brier 0.158).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.12	—	54%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
BTTS No	2.24	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.97	—	57%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Home Win	1.93	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	50%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.75	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	74%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Away Win	4.20	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.00	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	68%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	91%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.42	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.77	—	25%	Cashed	+2.77	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	72%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.41u	−14% ROI

Match Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.12 — +13.5% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled