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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Ajax — Excelsior

Predictions Ajax vs Excelsior November 22, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sat 22 Nov · 17:45
1:2
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Joey Kooij, Netherlands
Home Win · AJA
73%
Best 1.33
Draw
18%
Best 5.50
Away Win · EXC
9%
Best 7.75
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.89
Fair odds
1.79
book 1.89 · +5.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 56% · EV +5.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.3%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18%
Odds 5.55
Show model details
Implied probability 18%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 8.7%
Odds 8.25
Show model details
Implied probability 12.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 44.1%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.8%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 65.3%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 6.75
Show model details
Implied probability 14.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.3%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.7%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.3%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8.7%
Odds 5.90
Show model details
Implied probability 17%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 26.7%
Odds 3.31
Show model details
Implied probability 30.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.