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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Utrecht — FC Volendam

Utrecht vs FC Volendam 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Utrecht
Utrecht
Home · last 5 W W W W D
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 16:45
3:1
Full-time
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
L W L D L Away · last 5
Stadion Galgenwaard · Utrecht Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 21% · book 5.50 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.55 ✗
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 66% · book 1.63 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
2.54 – 0.46
Δ +2.08
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.55 — +13.0% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

Utrecht is expected to dominate against FC Volendam, with a strong home advantage and superior form. The likelihood of a home win is high, but the odds reflect this. The market suggests a cautious approach with potential value in defensive solidity and low-scoring outcomes.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.55 ✗ Lost
AI 44% Implied 39% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

UTR 3 – 1 VOL
58%
Possession (%)
42%
2.54
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.46
22
Total Shots
3
6
Shots on Target
3
9
Shots off Target
0
17
Shots Inside Box
2
10
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
13
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

Utrecht beat FC Volendam 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.54 to 0.46. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 3, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 0.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.43 units (Brier 0.125).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 1.5 5.50 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.55 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.63 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.10 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.42 — 72% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.12 — 91% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Draw 5.20 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.79 — 51% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Under 0.5 18.50 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.18 — 79% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.55 — 56% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.35 — 34% Cashed +1.35 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.06 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.13 — 72% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
AH Away 0 5.90 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.43u −32% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
UTR – VOL @ 2.55
+13.0%
Edge
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