PEC Zwolle vs PSV: the visitors bring a clear gap in overall quality and finishing form, with enough depth to sustain pressure and tilt the game state early. Zwolle’s path runs through compact defending and fast breaks, but the baseline is PSV control. Totals lean moderate—PSV should create plenty, yet a disciplined home shape keeps extreme scorelines in check. Safest angles cluster around away-sided protection and cautious unders.
PSV Eindhoven won 4–0 away at PEC Zwolle. At half-time it was 0–2.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 72% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.86 to 0.12. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 4, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.86 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -1.50 units (Brier 0.119).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AH Away +1 | 1.62 | — | 91% | Cashed | +0.62 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 2.46 | — | 48% | Cashed | +1.46 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.91 | — | 57% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 1.42 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.95 | — | 37% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 5.40 | — | 16% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 7.50 | — | 9% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 3 W · 4 L | −1.50u | −21% ROI |
