Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam: the hosts rate better on overall strength and recent output, with home edge likely to produce longer spells of pressure. Volendam still carry transition threat and set-piece upside, keeping the game state honest. Baseline leans toward a Fortuna-favored match with a mild tilt to goals if it opens early; the main speculative angle is the outsider price.
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.47 to 0.77. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -2.49 units (Brier 0.200).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away Win | 4.10 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.01 | — | 26% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 1.84 | — | 46% | Cashed | +0.84 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.65 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.62 | — | 54% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.27 | — | 72% | Cashed | +0.27 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.40 | — | 46% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 3 W · 4 L | −2.49u | −36% ROI |
