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Home England Premier League Aston Villa — Chelsea

Predictions Aston Villa vs Chelsea March 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Wed 04 Mar · 19:30
1:4
Full-time
Chelsea
Chelsea
L L D W L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia
Home Win · AST
27%
Best 2.75
Draw
25%
Best 3.45
Away Win · CHE
48%
Best 2.50
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.47
Fair odds
2.46
book 2.47 · +0.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 41% · EV +0.5%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 48.1%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 27%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.76
Show model details
Implied probability 26.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 34.9%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.05
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Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 20.9%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.7%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.7%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 48.1%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 27%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 73%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.59
Show model details
Implied probability 62.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.