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Home › England › Premier League › Everton — Burnley

Everton vs Burnley 2:0: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Everton
Everton
Home · last 5 L D D L L
Kick-off
Tue 03 Mar · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Hill Dickinson Stadium · Liverpool Referee Tim Robinson, England
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.97 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.95 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 65% · book 1.67 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.10 – 0.79
Δ +0.31
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.95 — +11.2% better than the market.

Everton hold a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their strong defensive profile should help contain Burnley, who struggle offensively on the road. Everton’s pressing and set-piece threat could be decisive in a match likely to stay tight, supported by balanced goal expectations and cautious pace.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away attack struggles
  • Everton’s recent home resilience
  • Moderate tempo favors compact play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.95 ✓ Cashed
AI 57% Implied 51% +0.95u
+95%
ROI on stake

Lineups

EVE 4-2-3-1 · BUR 3-4-2-1
EVE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BUR 1 Pickford 15 O'Brien 6 Tarkowski ⚽ 32 Branthwaite 16 Mykolenko 27 Gueye 37 Garner 7 McNeil 22 Dewsbury-Hall ⚽ 10 Ndiaye 9 Beto 1 Dúbravka 12 Humphreys 4 Worrall 5 Estève 2 Walker 16 Luís 28 Mejbri 23 Pires 8 Ugochukwu 11 Anthony 9 Foster
Subs used · EVE
83' Keane ↑ · Branthwaite ↓
83' Barry ↑ · Beto ↓
87' George ↑ · McNeil ↓
87' Iroegbunam ↑ · Gueye ↓
90+3' Dibling ↑ · Ndiaye ↓
Subs used · BUR
57' Ward-Prowse ↑ · Florentino ↓
57' Tchaouna ↑ · Worrall ↓
72' Laurent ↑ · Mejbri ↓
83' Barnes ↑ · Ugochukwu ↓

Statistics

EVE 2 – 0 BUR
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.10
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.79
14
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Target
2
5
Shots off Target
2
9
Shots Inside Box
3
6
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
12
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
0
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

12 · 2 – 0
J. Tarkowski
Assist · J. Garner · 1–0
⚽
32'
Half-time · 1 – 0
57'
⇄
J. Ward-Prowse ↓ · Florentino ↑
Substitution 1
57'
⇄
L. Tchaouna ↓ · J. Worrall ↑
Substitution 2
K. Dewsbury-Hall
Assist · I. Ndiaye · 2–0
⚽
60'
64'
▮
Bashir Humphreys
Yellow Card
72'
⇄
J. Laurent ↓ · H. Mejbri ↑
Substitution 3
M. Keane ↓ · J. Branthwaite ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
83'
T. Barry ↓ · Beto ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
83'
83'
⇄
A. Barnes ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑
Substitution 4
T. George ↓ · D. McNeil ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
87'
T. Iroegbunam ↓ · I. Gueye ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
T. Dibling ↓ · I. Ndiaye ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Everton beat Burnley 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3.

On the scoresheet: J. Tarkowski (32'), K. Dewsbury-Hall (60').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.27 units (Brier 0.089).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.97 — 59% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 57% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Home Win 1.67 — 65% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.01 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.37 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.97 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.85 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.35 — 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.17 — 88% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.24 — 65% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 — 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.99 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.31 — 67% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Away Win 6.09 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.40 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.35 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.27u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
EVE – BUR @ 1.95
+11.2%
Edge
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