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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Casa Pia — Rio Ave

Predictions by Market: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
1:1
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee H. Malheiro

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · CAS
49%
Best 1.77
Draw
23%
Best 3.93
Away Win · RIO
28%
Best 4.75
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.22
Fair odds
1.95
book 2.22 · +14.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 51% · EV +14.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (72%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 28.4%
Odds 4.89
Show model details
Implied probability 20.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 23.1%
Odds 4.16
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.9%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 42.1%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 12.2%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 35%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 21.6%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.8%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 57.1%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality High
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 42.9%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 28.4%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 51.4%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
CAS – RIO @ 2.22
+14.1%
Edge
Forecast →