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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Estoril

Alverca vs Estoril 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sun 10 May · 19:30
1:1
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L L D D L Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.14 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 44% · book 2.28 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 1.77 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.27 – 0.90
Δ +0.37
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.57 — +7.3% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Estoril in a clash where Estoril’s overall quality and offensive edge stand out despite their poor recent form. Alverca’s home momentum and defensive solidity could keep the game tight, but Estoril’s sharper attack versus Alverca’s defense suggests chances for both sides. The match may lean towards a balanced tempo with moderate goal potential given the odds and recent trends.

  • Estoril’s superior quality and attack
  • Alverca’s home defensive resilience
  • Recent form favors Alverca but Estoril’s threat remains

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.57 ✓ Cashed
AI 68% Implied 64% +0.57u
+57%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · EST 3-4-2-1
Subs used · ALV
66' Julian ↑ · Spencer ↓
74' Moreira ↑ · Rhaldney ↓
74' Lima ↑ · Lima ↓
88' Baseya ↑ · Meupiyou ↓
88' Nuozzi ↑ · Gui ↓
Subs used · EST
46' Costa ↑ · Ferro ↓
46' Lacximicant ↑ · Amaral ↓
72' Boma ↑ · Xeka ↓
80' Carvalho ↑ · Sanchez ↓
80' Peixinho ↑ · Guitane ↓

Statistics

ALV 1 – 1 EST
42%
Possession (%)
58%
1.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.90
8
Total Shots
11
1
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
7
5
Shots Inside Box
5
4
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
0
20
Fouls
15
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
3
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

17 · 1 – 1
Figueiredo
Assist · N. Touaizi · 1–0
⚽
12'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
G. Costa ↓ · Ferro ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
A. Lacximicant ↓ · P. Amaral ↑
Substitution 2
47'
⚽
A. Lacximicant
Assist · G. Costa · 1–1
45+3'
▮
A. Tsoungui
Yellow Card
Rhaldney
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
B. Meupiyou
Yellow Card
▮
56'
I. Julian ↓ · D. Spencer ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
72'
⇄
K. Boma ↓ · Xeka ↑
Substitution 3
V. Moreira ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
Felipe Lima ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
80'
⇄
P. Carvalho ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑
Substitution 4
80'
⇄
Peixinho ↓ · R. Guitane ↑
Substitution 5
S. Baseya ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
C. Nuozzi ↓ · D. Gui ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
90+4'
▮
P. Carvalho
Yellow Card
Naves
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Alverca and Estoril drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Figueiredo (12'), A. Lacximicant (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.94 units (Brier 0.158).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.14 2.25 47% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
BTTS No 2.28 2.38 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.77 1.62 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.60 1.53 56% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.08 2.00 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.62 2.50 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.49 2.45 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.81 1.87 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.87 2.67 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.57 1.53 68% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.44 1.47 68% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.45 1.44 57% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.00 4.50 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.03 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.00 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.18 76% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Draw 3.60 3.55 25% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.94u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ALV – EST @ 1.57
+7.3%
Edge
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