Match Tondela vs Moreirense May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.83 — +8.8% better than the market.

Moreirense enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity could stifle Tondela’s modest attacking threat, while the home side’s defensive struggles may be exposed by Moreirense’s sharper offense. Expect a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring chances, as reflected by the market leaning towards under 2.5 goals.

Moreirense’s defensive resilience vs Tondela’s attack
Home side’s recent inconsistent form
Likely controlled pace favoring fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed

AI 59% Implied 55% +0.83u

+83%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-2-3-1

TON · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · MOR

16 Lopes ⚽

Subs used · TON

72'

Hodge ↑ ·

Lopes ↓

72'

Tavares ↑ ·

Aiko ↓

72'

Kimpioka ↑ ·

Cicero ↓

83'

Siebatcheu ↑ ·

Felix ↓

90'

Afonso ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

Subs used · MOR

46'

Teguia ↑ ·

Bondoso ↓

46'

Semedo ↑ ·

Stjepanovic ↓

72'

Landerson ↑ ·

Kiko ↓

72'

Maranhao ↑ ·

Alanzinho ↓

83'

Santos ↑ ·

Fabiano ↓

📊 Statistics

TON 2 – 0 MOR

40%

Possession (%)

60%

1.39

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.29

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 0

M. Aiko

Assist · Pedro Maranhao · 1–0

⚽

18'

29'

▮

Alanzinho

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

C. Teguia ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

L. Semedo ↓ · M. Stjepanovic ↑

Substitution 2

Rony Lopes

Assist · T. Manso · 2–0

⚽

60'

J. Hodge ↓ · Rony Lopes ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

H. Tavares ↓ · M. Aiko ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

B. Kimpioka ↓ · Cicero ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

⇄

Landerson ↓ · Kiko ↑

Substitution 3

72'

⇄

Yan Maranhao ↓ · Alanzinho ↑

Substitution 4

77'

▮

Fabiano

Yellow Card

83'

⇄

L. Santos ↓ · Fabiano ↑

Substitution 5

J. Siebatcheu ↓ · H. Felix ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

J. Afonso ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

90+3'

▮

C. Teguia

Yellow Card

J. Siebatcheu

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

▮

Maracas

Red Card

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Tondela beat Moreirense 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.39 to 0.29. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Aiko (18'), Rony Lopes (60'). Maracas was sent off in the 90+4' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.89 units (Brier 0.145).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.83	1.80	59%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.91	1.88	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	1.87	54%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.87	1.86	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.06	2.00	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.95	1.90	42%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Away Win	4.10	4.00	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.30	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.00	3.18	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.26	1.22	68%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	9.09	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	1.25	79%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Draw	3.66	3.40	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	1.05	89%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.44	1.37	42%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	1.30	66%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.50	3.50	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.89u	−29% ROI