Match Benfica vs SC Braga May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.90 — +13.9% better than the market.

Benfica Looks to Maintain Home Momentum

Benfica enters this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home form, showing resilience and attacking prowess. Their offensive pressure meets a Braga defense that has struggled to contain top-tier attacks, suggesting Benfica’s pressing edge could unlock chances. Braga’s recent mixed results and lower scoring rate hint at a challenging night ahead, though their ability to score keeps the contest open. Expect a lively tempo with goals likely from both sides given the attacking matchups and historical goal-rich encounters.

Benfica’s home strength and attacking edge
Braga’s defensive vulnerabilities against high pressure
Potential for goals on both ends in a dynamic game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.90 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 53% +0.90u

+90%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · BRA 3-5-2

BEN · 4-2-3-1 3-5-2 · BRA

9 Ivanović

Subs used · BEN

61'

Pavlidis ↑ ·

Ivanovic ↓

76'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Barreiro ↓

Subs used · BRA

67'

Dorgeles ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

74'

Zalazar ↑ ·

Navarro ↓

82'

Moscardo ↑ ·

Lelo ↓

📊 Statistics

BEN 2 – 2 BRA

52%

Possession (%)

48%

3.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 2 – 2

Half-time · 0 – 0

Rafa Silva

1–0

⚽

46'

48'

⚽

P. Victor

Assist · V. Gomez · 1–1

56'

▮

L. Hornicek

Yellow Card

57'

▮

L. Lelo

Yellow Card

V. Pavlidis ↓ · F. Ivanovic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

67'

⇄

M. Dorgeles ↓ · G. Martinez ↑

Substitution 1

74'

⇄

R. Zalazar ↓ · F. Navarro ↑

Substitution 2

D. Lukebakio ↓ · L. Barreiro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

82'

⇄

Gabriel Moscardo ↓ · L. Lelo ↑

Substitution 3

A. Dedic

Yellow Card

▮

87'

88'

⚽

Gorby

Assist · M. Dorgeles · 1–2

90+3'

▮

Vitor Carvalho

Yellow Card

V. Pavlidis (P)

Penalty · 2–2

⚽

90+5'

90+6'

▮

V. Gomez

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Benfica and SC Braga drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.17 to 0.21. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 5, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.21 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Rafa Silva (46'), P. Victor (48'), Gorby (88'), V. Pavlidis (90+5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.69 units (Brier 0.202).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.90	1.80	60%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.70	1.60	64%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.26	2.38	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	1.95	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	2.38	43%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Home Win	1.45	1.37	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	1.08	90%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.88	2.89	30%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	1.50	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.15	1.11	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	1.14	83%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Draw	5.00	4.74	20%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Away Win	7.44	7.25	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	4.74	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	14.93	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.50	5.78	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.69u	+4% ROI