Match Nacional vs AVS May 2, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.00 — +9.9% better than the market.

Nacional holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger defensive setup and recent wins. Their pressing and compact block should challenge AVS, who have struggled to convert draws into wins and show less offensive threat. The pace hints at a cautious game, with under 2.5 goals likely as both sides prioritize solidity.

Home defensive resilience vs away offensive limitations
Recent form favors Nacional's sharper edge
Low tempo suggests tight, tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · AVS 4-3-3

NAC · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · AVS

11 Bóia

Subs used · NAC

46'

Liziero ↑ ·

Veron ↓

71'

Joao ↑ ·

Junior ↓

71'

Ruan ↑ ·

Labidi ↓

88'

Witi ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

88'

Aurelio ↑ ·

Nunez ↓

Subs used · AVS

64'

Ponck ↑ ·

Galletto ↓

72'

Tomane ↑ ·

Neiva ↓

90'

Molina ↑ ·

Akinsola ↓

📊 Statistics

NAC 1 – 2 AVS

68%

Possession (%)

32%

1.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

71%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 2

F. Soares

1–0

⚽

22'

⚽

Pedro Lima

Assist · T. Akinsola · 1–1

Gabriel Veron

Yellow Card

▮

41'

45'

▮

Paulo Vitor

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

Liziero ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

C. Labidi

Yellow Card

▮

55'

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

▮

59'

63'

⚽

G. Neiva

Assist · D. Duarte · 1–2

64'

⇄

Ponck ↓ · T. Galletto ↑

Substitution 1

L. Joao ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

Pablo Ruan ↓ · C. Labidi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

72'

⇄

Tomane ↓ · G. Neiva ↑

Substitution 2

Witi ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

J. Aurelio ↓ · A. Nunez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

89'

▮

Adriel

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

G. Molina ↓ · T. Akinsola ↑

Substitution 3

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Ze Vitor

Red Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

AVS won 2–1 away at Nacional. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 83% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 19, 6 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Soares (4'), Pedro Lima (22'), G. Neiva (63'). Ze Vitor was sent off in the 90+4' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.57 units (Brier 0.314).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.23	2.20	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	1.99	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.65	2.43	32%	Cashed	+1.65	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.75	45%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.72	1.70	47%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.62	2.70	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	1.43	74%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Home Win	1.52	1.50	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	4.10	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	12.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.13	1.13	89%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.16	1.17	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.62	4.27	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.03	91%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	1.20	70%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Away Win	6.50	6.02	11%	Cashed	+5.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.25	4.37	11%	Cashed	+4.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+4.57u	+27% ROI