Match AVS vs Sporting CP April 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.99 — +10.2% better than the market.

Sporting CP enters this clash with a clear quality edge and strong away momentum, reflected in their superior form and offensive firepower. AVS’s compact defensive setup may limit some chances, but Sporting’s pressing and attacking efficiency should create opportunities. The home side’s recent struggles and lower scoring trend suggest Sporting could control the tempo and secure a comfortable win.

Sporting’s attacking threat vs AVS’s defense
Home side’s recent form challenges
Likely controlled pace favoring visitors

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.99 ✓ Cashed

AI 55% Implied 50% +0.99u

+99%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AVS 4-3-3 · SPO 4-2-3-1

AVS · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · SPO

21 Neiva

Subs used · AVS

73'

Galletto ↑ ·

Mendonca ↓

74'

Perea ↑ ·

Neiva ↓

84'

Nene ↑ ·

Duarte ↓

84'

Molina ↑ ·

Lima ↓

90+2'

Ponck ↑ ·

Akinsola ↓

Subs used · SPO

56'

Catamo ↑ ·

Quenda ↓

57'

Suarez ↑ ·

Nel ↓

74'

Araujo ↑ ·

Mangas ↓

74'

Guilherme ↑ ·

Pote ↓

84'

Braganca ↑ ·

Kochorashvili ↓

📊 Statistics

AVS 1 – 1 SPO

25%

Possession (%)

75%

1.66

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

68%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 1

Gustavo Mendonca

Yellow Card

▮

12'

Half-time · 0 – 0

47'

⚽

R. Nel

Assist · G. Vagiannidis · 0–1

Babatunde Akinsola

Yellow Card

▮

45+6'

56'

⇄

G. Catamo ↓ · G. Quenda ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

L. Suarez ↓ · R. Nel ↑

Substitution 2

Pedro Lima (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

66'

T. Galletto ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

73'

O. Perea ↓ · G. Neiva ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

⇄

M. Araujo ↓ · R. Mangas ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

Luis Guilherme ↓ · Pote ↑

Substitution 4

Nene ↓ · D. Duarte ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

G. Molina ↓ · Pedro Lima ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

⇄

D. Braganca ↓ · G. Kochorashvili ↑

Substitution 5

Ponck ↓ · T. Akinsola ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

Adriel

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

90+7'

▮

Daniel Bragança

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

AVS and Sporting CP drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 75% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.36 to 1.66. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 0. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Nel (47'), Pedro Lima (66').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +10.94 units (Brier 0.320).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.99	—	55%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.05	—	46%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	1.69	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.80	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	10.00	—	12%	Cashed	+9.00	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.30	—	34%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.95	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Away Win	1.10	—	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.03	—	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	6.50	—	16%	Cashed	+5.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.08	—	84%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.29	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	18.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	13.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+10.94u	+73% ROI