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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Rio Ave

Predictions Guimaraes vs Rio Ave April 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimaraes Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Home Win · GUI
58%
Best 1.81
Draw
26%
Best 3.70
Away Win · RIO
16%
Best 5.00
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.60
Fair odds
3.19
book 3.60 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +13.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 25.7%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 16.3%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.4%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 23.6%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.8%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.3%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.6%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.9%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 16.3%
Odds 3.02
Show model details
Implied probability 33.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 41.9%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 83.7%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
GUI – RIO @ 3.60
+13.0%
Edge
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