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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Estrela

Predictions Arouca vs Estrela April 19, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 19 Apr · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
55%
Best 2.15
Draw
27%
Best 3.05
Away Win · EST
18%
Best 3.65
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.94
Fair odds
1.72
book 1.94 · +12.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 58% · EV +12.9%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 55.4%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 17.8%
Odds 4.21
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 41.8%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 32.3%
Odds 3.77
Show model details
Implied probability 26.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 77.8%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 10.6%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 67.7%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.2%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 53.3%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 17.8%
Odds 2.93
Show model details
Implied probability 34.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 44.6%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – EST @ 1.94
+12.9%
Edge
Forecast →