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Home › England › Premier League › Brighton — Nottingham Forest

Predictions by Market: Brighton vs Nottingham Forest

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sun 01 Mar · 14:00
2:1
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
W W D L D Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Andy Madley, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BRI
55%
Best 2.20
Draw
25%
Best 3.41
Away Win · NOT
21%
Best 3.30
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.02
Fair odds
3.56
book 4.02 · +12.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 28% · EV +12.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (72%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 24.8%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 20.6%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 53.3%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 73.9%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 28.1%
Odds 4.02
Show model details
Implied probability 24.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.6%
Odds 12.80
Show model details
Implied probability 7.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.5%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 71.9%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 50.3%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.7%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 20.6%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 79.4%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
BRI – NOT @ 4.02
+12.9%
Edge
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