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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Nacional — Estrela

Predictions by Market: Nacional vs Estrela

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 14:30
2:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAC
42%
Best 2.05
Draw
25%
Best 3.42
Away Win · EST
33%
Best 3.53
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.45
Fair odds
3.14
book 3.45 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 32% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (68%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 41.7%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 33%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.4%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 42.1%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 31.9%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 10.6%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 22.3%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 53%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 47%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 33%
Odds 2.72
Show model details
Implied probability 36.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 41.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 58.3%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAC – EST @ 3.45
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →