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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Estrela

Predictions Nacional vs Estrela April 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 14:30
2:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Home Win · NAC
42%
Best 2.05
Draw
25%
Best 3.42
Away Win · EST
33%
Best 3.53
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.86
Fair odds
1.73
book 1.86 · +7.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 58% · EV +7.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 41.7%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 33%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.4%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 42.1%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.9%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.6%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.3%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 53%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 47%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 33%
Odds 2.72
Show model details
Implied probability 36.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 41.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 58.3%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
NAC – EST @ 1.86
+7.6%
Edge
Forecast →