Guimaraes vs Tondela 5:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.84 — +10.8% better than the market.

Guimaraes hold a clear quality edge and a solid home defensive record, which should help them control the game against Tondela. Despite a mixed recent form, Guimaraes' pressing and compact block at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques could stifle Tondela’s attack, which has struggled away. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a cautious approach, favoring a tight contest with limited goal-scoring chances.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Guimaraes’ home momentum despite patchy form
Likely cautious pace with few clear-cut chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.84 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 54% +0.84u

+84%

ROI on stake

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · TON 4-2-3-1

GUI · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TON

11 Silva ⚽

Subs used · GUI

67'

Sousa ↑ ·

Samu ↓

67'

Saviolo ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

75'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

75'

Maga ↑ ·

Strata ↓

81'

Lebedenko ↑ ·

I. Mendes ↓

Subs used · TON

56'

Conceicao ↑ ·

Maviram ↓

56'

Aiko ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

56'

Ouattara ↑ ·

van der Heide ↓

68'

Felix ↑ ·

Lopes ↓

80'

Tavares ↑ ·

Hodge ↓

Statistics

GUI 5 – 0 TON

52%

Possession (%)

48%

2.55

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.06

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 5 – 0

O. Camara

Assist · G. Nogueira · 1–0

⚽

M. Nogueira

Assist · O. Camara · 2–0

⚽

18'

Half-time · 2 – 0

47'

▮

Brayan Medina

Yellow Card

Samu (P)

Penalty · 3–0

⚽

51'

Gustavo

4–0

⚽

55'

56'

⇄

R. Conceicao ↓ · E. Maviram ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

M. Aiko ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 2

56'

⇄

M. Ouattara ↓ · A. van der Heide ↑

Substitution 3

J. I. Mendes (P)

Penalty · 5–0

⚽

65'

D. Sousa ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

N. Saviolo ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

68'

⇄

H. Felix ↓ · Rony Lopes ↑

Substitution 4

T. Arcanjo ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

Maga ↓ · T. Strata ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

80'

⇄

H. Tavares ↓ · J. Hodge ↑

Substitution 5

O. Lebedenko ↓ · J. I. Mendes ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

Diogo Sousa

Yellow Card

▮

87'

Full-time · 5 – 0

Match recap

Guimaraes beat Tondela 5–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.55 to 0.06. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 3, 5 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 2.55 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: O. Camara (5'), M. Nogueira (18'), Samu (51'), Gustavo (55'), J. I. Mendes (65').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.30 units (Brier 0.184).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.84	—	60%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.83	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.90	—	54%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.02	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.15	—	42%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.07	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.35	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	—	85%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.32	—	60%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	68%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	22%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Away Win	4.76	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.52	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.30u	−14% ROI

Guimaraes vs Tondela 5:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled