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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › FC Porto — Famalicao

FC Porto vs Famalicao 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 19:30
2:2
Full-time
Famalicao
Famalicao
D W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 48% · book 2.25 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 2.01 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 1.92 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
0.43 – 1.62
Δ −1.19
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.25 — +8.8% better than the market.

FC Porto arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a flawless recent run and a clear quality edge over Famalicao. Their robust defense combined with a potent attack should challenge Famalicao’s less resilient backline. The home side’s pressing edge and tactical discipline are likely to control the game's pace, favoring a confident Porto performance.

  • Porto’s superior form and home comfort
  • Effective defensive solidity against Famalicao’s attack
  • Moderate goal environment suggests balanced chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.25 ✓ Cashed
AI 48% Implied 44% +1.25u
+125%
ROI on stake

Lineups

POR 4-3-3 · FAM 4-2-3-1
POR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · FAM 99 Costa 20 Costa ⚽ 5 Bednarek 4 Kiwior 12 Sanusi 8 Froholdt 22 Varela 86 Mora 11 Pepê 29 Moffi 77 Pietuszewski 25 Carević 17 Pinheiro ⚽ 55 Ba 16 Haas 5 Soares 6 Looi 14 Amorim 23 Dias 20 Sá 7 Sorriso ⚽ 12 Elisor
Subs used · POR
44' Fofana ↑ · Mora ↓
46' Fernandes ↑ · Zaidu ↓
46' Gomes ↑ · Pietuszewski ↓
61' Gul ↑ · Moffi ↓
74' Sainz ↑ · Pepê ↓
Subs used · FAM
61' Pena ↑ · De Amorim ↓
79' Santos ↑ · Sa ↓
90' Beney ↑ · Sorriso ↓

Statistics

POR 2 – 2 FAM
51%
Possession (%)
49%
0.43
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.62
8
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
6
2
Shots off Target
4
5
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
0
20
Fouls
14
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
5
Yellow Cards
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

21 · 2 – 2
-5'
▮
Pedro Bondo
Yellow Card
Zaidu Sanusi
Yellow Card
▮
21'
A. Costa
Assist · T. Moffi · 1–0
⚽
35'
S. Fofana ↓ · R. Mora ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
44'
Half-time · 1 – 0
M. Fernandes ↓ · Zaidu ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
William Gomes ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
46'
45+2'
▮
Tom Van De Looi
Yellow Card
54'
⚽
Sorriso
1–1
William Gomes
Yellow Card
▮
55'
D. Gul ↓ · T. Moffi ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
61'
61'
⇄
M. Pena ↓ · M. De Amorim ↑
Substitution 1
Jan Bednarek
Yellow Card
▮
69'
Alan Varela
Yellow Card
▮
70'
B. Sainz ↓ · Pepê ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
74'
79'
⇄
P. Santos ↓ · G. Sa ↑
Substitution 2
90'
⇄
R. Beney ↓ · Sorriso ↑
Substitution 3
S. Fofana
Assist · M. Fernandes · 2–1
⚽
90'
90'
⚽
R. Pinheiro
2–2
90+5'
▮
Rafa Soares
Yellow Card
Alberto Costa
Yellow Card
▮
90+6'
90+6'
▮
Justin De Haas
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

FC Porto and Famalicao drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.62 to 0.43. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.43 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Costa (35'), Sorriso (54'), S. Fofana (90'), R. Pinheiro (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.67 units (Brier 0.248).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.25 — 48% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.01 — 53% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.92 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.67 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.45 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.40 — 31% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 92% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.92 — 29% Cashed +1.92 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.14 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.31 — 76% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 — 92% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 4.61 — 21% Cashed +3.61 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.35 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.60 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.75 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.75 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.67u +10% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
POR – FAM @ 2.25
+8.8%
Edge
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