Match Alverca vs Sporting CP March 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.12 — +13.1% better than the market.

Sporting CP enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a potent attack that challenges Alverca's defense. Despite Alverca's steady recent form, Sporting's superior offensive firepower and experience on the road suggest they will control the game's rhythm. The home side's compact block may limit chances, but Sporting's pressing and set-piece threat could unlock opportunities.

Sporting's strong away momentum contrasts with Alverca's cautious home approach.
Alverca's defense faces a tough test against Sporting's dynamic attack.
The match hints at a moderately open tempo, favoring goal-scoring chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.12 ✓ Cashed

AI 53% Implied 47% +1.12u

+112%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · SPO 4-2-3-1

ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · SPO

91 Lima

Subs used · ALV

65'

Marezi ↑ ·

Lima ↓

65'

Moreira ↑ ·

Chiquinho ↓

65'

Gui ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

75'

Clairicia ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

80'

Baseya ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

Subs used · SPO

27'

Vagiannidis ↑ ·

Santos ↓

72'

Braganca ↑ ·

Morita ↓

72'

Debast ↑ ·

Inacio ↓

82'

Nel ↑ ·

Suarez ↓

82'

Mangas ↑ ·

Fresneda ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 1 – 4 SPO

31%

Possession (%)

69%

0.83

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 4

22'

⚽

P. Goncalves

0–1

24'

▮

Gonçalo Inácio

Yellow Card

27'

⇄

G. Vagiannidis ↓ · N. Santos ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 0 – 1

49'

▮

Luis Javier Suárez

Yellow Card

50'

⚽

L. Suarez

Assist · H. Morita · 0–2

Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

V. Moreira ↓ · Chiquinho ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

D. Gui ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

68'

⚽

G. Catamo

Assist · M. Hjulmand · 0–3

72'

⇄

D. Braganca ↓ · H. Morita ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

Z. Debast ↓ · G. Inacio ↑

Substitution 3

M. Clairicia ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

S. Baseya ↓ · S. Gomez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

82'

⇄

R. Nel ↓ · L. Suarez ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

R. Mangas ↓ · I. Fresneda ↑

Substitution 5

Marezi

Assist · I. James · 1–3

⚽

83'

Nabil Touaizi

Yellow Card

▮

85'

86'

⚽

P. Goncalves

1–4

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Sporting CP won 4–1 away at Alverca. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.33 to 0.83. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.33 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Goncalves (22'), L. Suarez (50'), G. Catamo (68'), Marezi (83'), P. Goncalves (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.86 units (Brier 0.099).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.12	—	53%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.63	—	41%	Cashed	+1.63	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.67	—	63%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.35	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.78	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.33	—	76%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.08	—	93%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.55	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.05	—	76%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	5.91	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	—	83%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.68	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.70	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	10.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	7.10	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.86u	−29% ROI