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Alverca vs AVS 0:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 07 Mar · 15:30
0:0
Full-time
AVS
AVS
D D W W D Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.77 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.86 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.91 ✓
Total goals
0
0 · 0
xG (open play)
0.70 – 0.42
Δ +0.28
Possession
69% – 31%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.77 — +9.6% better than the market.

Alverca holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid defensive setup, which should help contain AVS's less potent attack. Recent form favors the home side with more consistent point returns, suggesting home momentum could be decisive. The match is likely to be moderately paced, with a tactical emphasis on compact defense and cautious build-up.

  • Home defensive resilience vs away offensive struggles
  • Better recent form and home advantage
  • Moderate tempo favors structured play over open end-to-end action

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.77 ✗ Lost
AI 62% Implied 57% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · AVS 5-3-2
Subs used · ALV
56' Lima ↑ · Marezi ↓
78' Clairicia ↑ · Rhaldney ↓
78' Moreira ↑ · Chiquinho ↓
84' Spencer ↑ · Baseya ↓
84' Garcia ↑ · James ↓
Subs used · AVS
34' Galletto ↑ · Algobia ↓
63' Akinsola ↑ · Neiva ↓
63' Perea ↑ · Tomane ↓
72' Ponck ↑ · Duarte ↓
72' Molina ↑ · Pivo ↓

Statistics

ALV 0 – 0 AVS
69%
Possession (%)
31%
0.70
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.42
16
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Target
2
9
Shots off Target
6
9
Shots Inside Box
5
8
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
13
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
66%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 0 – 0
12'
▮
Mateus Pivô
Yellow Card
34'
⇄
T. Galletto ↓ · A. Algobia ↑
Substitution 1
38'
▮
Guilherme Neiva
Yellow Card
Isaac James
Yellow Card
▮
39'
Half-time · 0 – 0
55'
▮
Tiago Galletto
Yellow Card
Sandro Lima ↓ · Marezi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
56'
63'
⇄
T. Akinsola ↓ · G. Neiva ↑
Substitution 2
63'
⇄
O. Perea ↓ · Tomane ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⇄
Ponck ↓ · D. Duarte ↑
Substitution 4
72'
⇄
G. Molina ↓ · Mateus Pivo ↑
Substitution 5
M. Clairicia ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
78'
V. Moreira ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
D. Spencer ↓ · S. Baseya ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
F. Garcia ↓ · I. James ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

Alverca and AVS drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +8.75 units (Brier 0.310).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.77 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.86 — 57% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 — 54% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.98 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.04 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.15 — 38% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 31% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.20 — 86% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.28 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 — 77% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 — 10% Cashed +9.00 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.33 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.80 — 24% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.55 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.20 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.69 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +8.75u +51% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
ALV – AVS @ 1.77
+9.6%
Edge
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