Estoril vs GIL Vicente 3:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.55 — +3.9% better than the market.

Estoril holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a competitive edge in this Primeira Liga clash. Both sides show strong recent form, but Estoril’s better defensive solidity against GIL Vicente’s attacking efforts could be decisive. Expect a balanced tempo with potential for tight moments given the close xG figures and cautious tactical setups.

Home momentum with solid defensive structure
Close offensive matchup but slight edge to Estoril
Moderate pace expected, favoring compact play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.55 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 65% +0.55u

+55%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-3-1-2 · VIC 4-2-3-1

EST · 4-3-1-2 4-2-3-1 · VIC

9 Marqués

Subs used · EST

59'

Guitane ↑ ·

Tsoungui ↓

68'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Costa ↓

86'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Jandro ↓

Subs used · VIC

52'

Moreira ↑ ·

Fernandes ↓

73'

Hevertton ↑ ·

Carlos ↓

73'

Hernandez ↑ ·

Varela ↓

83'

Caseres ↑ ·

Carlos ↓

83'

Eduardo ↑ ·

Esteves ↓

Statistics

EST 3 – 1 VIC

48%

Possession (%)

52%

2.18

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.42

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

72%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

12 · 3 – 1

15'

⚽

Murilo de Souza (P)

Penalty · 0–1

F. Bacher

Assist · J. Holsgrove · 1–1

⚽

22'

Half-time · 1 – 1

52'

⇄

A. Moreira ↓ · J. Fernandes ↑

Substitution 1

R. Guitane ↓ · A. Tsoungui ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

P. Carvalho ↓ · G. Costa ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

73'

⇄

S. Hevertton ↓ · Ze Carlos ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

H. Hernandez ↓ · G. Varela ↑

Substitution 3

Y. Begraoui

Assist · J. Carvalho · 2–1

⚽

74'

Y. Begraoui

Assist · J. Carvalho · 3–1

⚽

80'

83'

⇄

F. Caseres ↓ · Ze Carlos ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

Carlos Eduardo ↓ · L. Esteves ↑

Substitution 5

Pizzi ↓ · Jandro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Estoril beat GIL Vicente 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1.

On the scoresheet: Murilo de Souza (15'), F. Bacher (22'), Y. Begraoui (74'), Y. Begraoui (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.10 units (Brier 0.207).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.97	—	50%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.92	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	54%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Away Win	2.70	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.06	—	41%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.86	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.88	—	41%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.55	—	67%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.48	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	74%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.35	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.30	—	29%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.61	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.10u	−6% ROI

Estoril vs GIL Vicente 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled