Match Benfica vs AVS February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.97 — +12.2% better than the market.

Benfica enters this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a strong attacking edge against AVS's defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while AVS struggles to maintain consistency on the road. The quality gap heavily favors Benfica, who are likely to control the pace and create multiple chances.

Benfica's potent offense vs AVS's leaky defense
Home advantage with solid recent form
Expected open game given Benfica's attacking intent

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.97 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 51% +0.97u

+97%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · AVS 4-1-4-1

BEN · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · AVS

14 Pavlidis

Subs used · BEN

46'

Araujo ↑ ·

Otamendi ↓

71'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Bah ↓

71'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Schjelderup ↓

81'

Anisio ↑ ·

Pavlidis ↓

86'

Prioste ↑ ·

Silva ↓

Subs used · AVS

46'

Molina ↑ ·

Pivo ↓

46'

Santos ↑ ·

Devenish ↓

54'

Perea ↑ ·

Akinsola ↓

54'

Galletto ↑ ·

Mendonca ↓

81'

Kiki ↑ ·

Rivas ↓

📊 Statistics

BEN 3 – 0 AVS

65%

Possession (%)

35%

3.47

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 3 – 0

A. Bah

1–0

⚽

11'

E. Barrenechea

Assist · R. Rios · 2–0

⚽

30'

Rafa Silva

Assist · S. Lopes Cabral · 3–0

⚽

43'

Half-time · 3 – 0

T. Araujo ↓ · N. Otamendi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

G. Molina ↓ · Mateus Pivo ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

A. Santos ↓ · C. Devenish ↑

Substitution 2

54'

⇄

O. Perea ↓ · T. Akinsola ↑

Substitution 3

54'

⇄

T. Galletto ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑

Substitution 4

F. Ivanovic ↓ · A. Bah ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

D. Lukebakio ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

Anisio ↓ · V. Pavlidis ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

⇄

Kiki ↓ · D. Rivas ↑

Substitution 5

D. Prioste ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Benfica beat AVS 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.47 to 0.11. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 3, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

On the scoresheet: A. Bah (11'), E. Barrenechea (30'), Rafa Silva (43').

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.85 units (Brier 0.067).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.97	—	57%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.70	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.93	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	15.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	8.00	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	10.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.02	—	98%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Home Win	1.11	—	88%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
BTTS No	1.55	—	57%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 0.5	29.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.11	—	84%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.37	—	65%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Away Win	39.00	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	23.00	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 9 L	−6.85u	−43% ROI