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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Arouca

Predictions Casa Pia vs Arouca February 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Feb · 15:30
3:2
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Diogo Rosa, Portugal
Home Win · CAS
27%
Best 2.88
Draw
28%
Best 3.10
Away Win · ARO
45%
Best 2.52
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.68
book 1.91 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 60% · EV +14.0%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 44.7%
Odds 2.76
Show model details
Implied probability 36.2%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 27.2%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 28.1%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 33.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 40.6%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 14.3%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 83.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 59.4%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 85.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 16.2%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 59.7%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality High
BTTS Yes
Probability 40.3%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 44.7%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 27.2%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.46
Show model details
Implied probability 68.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 55.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
CAS – ARO @ 1.91
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →