Estrela vs Santa Clara 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.63 — +9.3% better than the market.

Estrela holds a clear quality edge and a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Santa Clara, who have struggled away and carry poor recent form. The home side's pressing and compact block may limit Santa Clara’s attacking chances despite their slightly better recent points per game. Expect a cautious tempo with a low goal count, as both teams have shown defensive resilience but lack sharp finishing.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Recent form favors Estrela’s home momentum
Likely tight, low-scoring contest with few clear-cut chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.63 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 61% +0.63u

+63%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 3-4-3 · SAN 4-3-3

EST · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · SAN

11 Cabral ⚽

Subs used · EST

46'

Stoica ↑ ·

Langa ↓

46'

van Hooijdonk ↑ ·

Antonetti ↓

69'

Brahimi ↑ ·

Jovane ↓

69'

Sola ↑ ·

Robinho ↓

80'

Kalley ↑ ·

Doue ↓

Subs used · SAN

64'

Paciencia ↑ ·

Silva ↓

65'

Brenner ↑ ·

Lopes ↓

77'

Romao ↑ ·

Victor ↓

77'

Torrao ↑ ·

Klismahn ↓

87'

Calila ↑ ·

Soares ↓

Statistics

EST 1 – 0 SAN

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 1 – 0

Eddy Doué

Yellow Card

▮

23'

Half-time · 0 – 0

I. Stoica ↓ · B. Langa ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · L. Antonetti ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

50'

▮

Gabriel Silva

Yellow Card

Jovane

Assist · J. Encada · 1–0

⚽

59'

64'

⇄

G. Paciencia ↓ · Wendel Silva ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

Brenner ↓ · Vinicius Lopes ↑

Substitution 2

B. Brahimi ↓ · Jovane ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

A. Sola ↓ · Robinho ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

69'

77'

⇄

Guilherme Romao ↓ · Paulo Victor ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

Welinton Torrao ↓ · Gustavo Klismahn ↑

Substitution 4

Otavio

Yellow Card

▮

79'

Y. Kalley ↓ · G. Doue ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

Ianis Stoica

Yellow Card

▮

82'

87'

⇄

Diogo Calila ↓ · Lucas Soares ↑

Substitution 5

Renan Ribeiro

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Estrela beat Santa Clara 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 12, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Jovane (59').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.47 units (Brier 0.184).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	1.63	—	67%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.75	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.25	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.67	—	57%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.50	—	37%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.42	—	37%	Cashed	+1.42	Cashed
Away Win	2.48	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.65	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.52	—	37%	Cashed	+2.52	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.59	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.49	—	63%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Draw	3.08	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.13	—	88%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.17	—	82%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.47u	−9% ROI

Estrela vs Santa Clara 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled