Estoril vs Tondela 2:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.82 — +11.8% better than the market.

Estoril carries clear home momentum into this clash, boasting a strong recent run and a notable edge in overall quality. Their offensive prowess is likely to challenge Tondela's defense, which has shown some vulnerability. The home side's compact block and pressing edge could stifle Tondela’s attack, while Estoril’s set-piece threat adds another dimension.

Home form and quality advantage
Offensive pressure vs defensive gaps
Likely moderate tempo with goal chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.82 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-3-3 · TON 4-2-3-1

EST · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · TON

9 Marqués

Subs used · EST

55'

Jandro ↑ ·

Pizzi ↓

74'

Peixinho ↑ ·

Marques ↓

83'

Tsoungui ↑ ·

Ferro ↓

83'

Costa ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

Subs used · TON

65'

Kimpioka ↑ ·

Siebatcheu ↓

65'

Felix ↑ ·

Hodge ↓

74'

van der Heide ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

90+2'

Tavares ↑ ·

Sithole ↓

Statistics

EST 2 – 2 TON

68%

Possession (%)

32%

0.71

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.35

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

13 · 2 – 2

12'

⚽

Pedro Maranhao

Assist · M. Aiko · 0–1

16'

⚽

Pedro Maranhao

Assist · Cicero · 0–2

J. Carvalho

Assist · Pizzi · 1–2

⚽

26'

Ferro

Assist · Pizzi · 2–2

⚽

29'

Half-time · 2 – 2

Jandro ↓ · Pizzi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

65'

⇄

B. Kimpioka ↓ · J. Siebatcheu ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

H. Felix ↓ · J. Hodge ↑

Substitution 2

Peixinho ↓ · A. Marques ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

⇄

A. van der Heide ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 3

A. Tsoungui ↓ · Ferro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

G. Costa ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

Antef Tsoungui

Yellow Card

▮

84'

90+2'

⇄

H. Tavares ↓ · S. Sithole ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Estoril and Tondela drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.35 to 0.71. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 6, 6 on target.

On the scoresheet: Pedro Maranhao (12'), Pedro Maranhao (16'), J. Carvalho (26'), Ferro (29').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.58 units (Brier 0.226).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.82	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.08	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.85	—	51%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.77	—	52%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.22	—	39%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.21	—	85%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.05	—	30%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.38	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.08	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.26	—	75%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Draw	4.01	—	23%	Cashed	+3.01	Cashed
Away Win	4.88	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.70	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.58u	−3% ROI

Estoril vs Tondela 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled