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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › AVS — SC Braga

AVS vs SC Braga 0:4: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
AVS
AVS
Home · last 5 D D W W D
Kick-off
Mon 02 Feb · 18:45
0:4
Full-time
SC Braga
SC Braga
W L D D D Away · last 5
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves · Vila das Aves Referee Carlos Macedo, Portugal
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 1.91 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 46% · book 2.16 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.03 ✗
Total goals
4
0 · 4
xG (open play)
0.44 – 2.00
Δ −1.56
Possession
33% – 67%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.42 — +2.3% better than the market.

SC Braga arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves. AVS’s defensive struggles against Braga’s potent attack could be decisive, while Braga’s offensive threat is likely to test the home side’s compact block. The pace might be moderate, with a balanced goal environment hinted by odds.

  • Braga’s superior offensive firepower versus AVS’s leaky defense
  • Home side’s recent poor form contrasting Braga’s momentum
  • Moderate tempo likely to favor Braga’s structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 1.42 ✓ Cashed
AI 72% Implied 70% +0.42u
+42%
ROI on stake

Lineups

AVS 5-4-1 · BRA 3-4-3
AVS · 5-4-1 3-4-3 · BRA 1 Adriel 23 Mendonca 26 Ponck 27 Algobia 35 Semedo 24 Afonso 11 Akinsola 70 Roni 8 Lima 14 Perea 20 Duarte 1 Horníček 37 Barišić 14 Lagerbielke 26 Arrey-Mbi 2 Gómez 29 Gorby 8 Moutinho 77 Martínez 10 Zalazar ⚽ 18 Víctor ⚽ 21 Horta ⚽
Subs used · AVS
59' Galletto ↑ · Algobia ↓
66' Neiva ↑ · Perea ↓
66' Nene ↑ · Duarte ↓
81' Grau ↑ · Roni ↓
81' Tomane ↑ · Mendonca ↓
Subs used · BRA
65' Oliveira ↑ · Barisic ↓
65' Lelo ↑ · Arrey-Mbi ↓
73' Moscardo ↑ · Gorby ↓
74' Rodrigues ↑ · Martinez ↓
85' E. Tiknaz ↑ · Horta ↓

Statistics

AVS 0 – 4 BRA
33%
Possession (%)
67%
0.44
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.00
8
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
8
4
Shots off Target
2
6
Shots Inside Box
9
1
Corner Kicks
4
4
Offsides
5
3
Fouls
6
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
90%
0
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

15 · 0 – 4
7'
⚽
R. Horta
Assist · P. Victor · 0–1
23'
▮
Bright Arrey-Mbi
Yellow Card
30'
⚽
R. Zalazar
Assist · R. Horta · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
T. Galletto ↓ · A. Algobia ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
65'
⇄
P. Oliveira ↓ · A. Barisic ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
L. Lelo ↓ · B. Arrey-Mbi ↑
Substitution 2
G. Neiva ↓ · O. Perea ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
Nene ↓ · D. Duarte ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
73'
⇄
Gabriel Moscardo ↓ · Gorby ↑
Substitution 3
74'
⇄
D. Rodrigues ↓ · G. Martinez ↑
Substitution 4
80'
⚽
P. Victor
Assist · D. Rodrigues · 0–3
J. Grau ↓ · Roni ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
Tomane ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
83'
⚽
P. Victor
Assist · R. Horta · 0–4
85'
⇄
D. E. Tiknaz ↓ · R. Horta ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 4

Match recap

SC Braga won 4–0 away at AVS. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.00 to 0.44. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.00 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: R. Horta (7'), R. Zalazar (30'), P. Victor (80'), P. Victor (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.31 units (Brier 0.130).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.91 — 53% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.16 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.03 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.72 — 54% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Away Win 1.42 — 72% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.10 — 92% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 — 32% Cashed +2.10 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.40 — 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 3.10 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.12 — 72% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 — 77% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 4.87 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.10 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.20 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 9.00 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 6.25 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.31u −25% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
AVS – BRA @ 1.42
+2.3%
Edge
Forecast →