Match Casa Pia vs AVS January 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Casa Pia holds a clear home edge with a stronger defensive setup and better overall quality, which should help them control the game tempo at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Despite recent mixed form, their ability to limit AVS's attacking threat stands out. AVS struggles away and has shown poor recent form, suggesting Casa Pia's compact block and home momentum could be decisive.

Casa Pia's defensive solidity vs AVS's moderate offense
Home advantage with tactical discipline
Low-scoring trend likely given cautious play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · AVS 4-2-3-1

CAS · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · AVS

29 Livolant

Subs used · CAS

65'

Osundina ↑ ·

Morais ↓

80'

Prieto ↑ ·

Conte ↓

80'

Ofori ↑ ·

Brito ↓

90+3'

Mohamed ↑ ·

Livolant ↓

Subs used · AVS

60'

Rivas ↑ ·

Perea ↓

60'

Duarte ↑ ·

Roni ↓

68'

Nene ↑ ·

Tomane ↓

68'

Neiva ↑ ·

Akinsola ↓

📊 Statistics

CAS 3 – 3 AVS

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.57

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.16

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

47%

Pass Accuracy (%)

50%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 3 – 3

D. Sousa

Assist · R. Brito · 1–0

⚽

13'

▮

Roni

Yellow Card

30'

▮

Rúben Semedo

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Pedro Lima

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

G. Larrazabal

2–0

⚽

50'

60'

⇄

D. Rivas ↓ · O. Perea ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

D. Duarte ↓ · Roni ↑

Substitution 2

Cassiano

Yellow Card

▮

63'

K. Osundina ↓ · T. Morais ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

K. Osundina

Assist · J. Livolant · 3–0

⚽

65'

68'

⇄

Nene ↓ · Tomane ↑

Substitution 3

68'

⇄

G. Neiva ↓ · T. Akinsola ↑

Substitution 4

69'

▮

Leonardo Rivas

Yellow Card

Abdu Conté

Yellow Card

▮

74'

75'

⚽

Nene (P)

Penalty · 3–1

K. Prieto ↓ · A. Conte ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

L. Ofori ↓ · R. Brito ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

81'

▮

Kiki Afonso

Yellow Card

João Goulart

Yellow Card

▮

88'

90'

⚽

Nene (P)

Penalty · 3–2

90'

⚽

G. Neiva

Assist · Pedro Lima · 3–3

I. Mohamed ↓ · J. Livolant ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

Casa Pia and AVS drew 3–3. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.16 to 1.57. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 9, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Sousa (5'), G. Larrazabal (50'), K. Osundina (65'), Nene (75'), Nene (90'), G. Neiva (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.96 units (Brier 0.306).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.85	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.71	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.98	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	43%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.12	—	37%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.35	—	32%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.08	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.43	—	58%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.42	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	83%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.15	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.34	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.35	—	15%	Cashed	+3.35	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.96u	+6% ROI