Estoril vs Guimaraes 4:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.44 — +6.7% better than the market.

Estoril holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a stronger attack against Guimaraes' leaky defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Guimaraes' defense looks vulnerable to Estoril's pressing and set-piece threat. The home side's compact block and ability to control tempo could limit Guimaraes' chances.

Home advantage with sharper offensive output
Guimaraes' defensive struggles against high pressing
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.44 ✓ Cashed

AI 74% Implied 69% +0.44u

+44%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-4-2 · GUI 4-2-3-1

EST · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · GUI

9 Marqués ⚽

Subs used · EST

46'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Lominadze ↓

73'

Tsoungui ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

73'

Costa ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

78'

Xeka ↑ ·

Marques ↓

90+1'

Ferro ↑ ·

Guitane ↓

Subs used · GUI

58'

Gustavo ↑ ·

Saviolo ↓

58'

Sousa ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

72'

Lebedenko ↑ ·

I. Mendes ↓

72'

Blanco ↑ ·

Samu ↓

82'

Opara ↑ ·

Camara ↓

Statistics

EST 4 – 2 GUI

55%

Possession (%)

45%

2.08

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 4 – 2

22'

▮

Alioune Ndoye

Yellow Card

Rafik Guitane

Yellow Card

▮

26'

27'

⚽

Samu

Assist · G. Nogueira · 0–1

Y. Begraoui

Assist · R. Guitane · 1–1

⚽

29'

Nodar Lominadze

Yellow Card

▮

33'

34'

⚽

M. Mitrovic

1–2

36'

▮

Gonçalo Nogueira

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 2

Pizzi ↓ · N. Lominadze ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

A. Marques

Assist · R. Guitane · 2–2

⚽

56'

58'

⇄

Gustavo ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑

Substitution 1

58'

⇄

D. Sousa ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 2

64'

▮

João Mendes

Yellow Card

A. Marques

Assist · J. Holsgrove · 3–2

⚽

65'

72'

⇄

O. Lebedenko ↓ · J. I. Mendes ↑

Substitution 3

72'

⇄

F. Blanco ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 4

A. Tsoungui ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

G. Costa ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

Xeka ↓ · A. Marques ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

Y. Begraoui

Assist · Pizzi · 4–2

⚽

78'

82'

⇄

E. Opara ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 5

Ferro ↓ · R. Guitane ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 4 – 2

Match recap

Estoril beat Guimaraes 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.08 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Samu (27'), Y. Begraoui (29'), M. Mitrovic (34'), A. Marques (56'), A. Marques (65'), Y. Begraoui (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.16 units (Brier 0.207).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.58	—	47%	Cashed	+1.58	Cashed
BTTS No	2.12	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.82	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.09	—	45%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.82	—	51%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.83	—	47%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.11	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.44	—	74%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.93	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.42	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.35	—	71%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.65	—	25%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.16u	−7% ROI

Estoril vs Guimaraes 4:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled