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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — FC Porto

Predictions Guimaraes vs FC Porto January 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Sun 18 Jan · 20:30
0:1
Full-time
FC Porto
FC Porto
W W W L W Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimaraes Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Home Win · GUI
10%
Best 6.98
Draw
22%
Best 4.10
Away Win · POR
69%
Best 1.47
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.85
Fair odds
3.48
book 3.85 · +10.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 29% · EV +10.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (71%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 68.5%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 21.8%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 9.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 50.7%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 49.4%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 28.8%
Odds 3.85
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 74.2%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.2%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 25.8%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.8%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.9%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 68.5%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 9.7%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 31.5%
Odds 2.71
Show model details
Implied probability 36.9%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 90.4%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
GUI – POR @ 3.85
+10.7%
Edge
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