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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Arouca

Predictions Tondela vs Arouca January 3, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 03 Jan · 15:30
3:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Home Win · TON
38%
Best 2.39
Draw
27%
Best 3.18
Away Win · ARO
35%
Best 3.10
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.00
Fair odds
1.74
book 2.00 · +14.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 57% · EV +14.7%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.41
Show model details
Implied probability 29.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 62%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 38%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 35.9%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 12.2%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.8%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 64.1%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 57.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality High
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.7%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
TON – ARO @ 2.00
+14.7%
Edge
Forecast →