Match Arouca vs GIL Vicente December 28, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.83 — +8.4% better than the market.

GIL Vicente enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a more potent attack, while Arouca struggles to find form at home. The visitors' defensive solidity contrasts with Arouca's vulnerabilities, suggesting a tactical upper hand. Expect a controlled pace with limited goal-scoring chances as both sides show recent draws and cautious approaches.

GIL Vicente's offensive pressure vs Arouca's leaky defense
Home side's recent dips in momentum
Likely compact, low-scoring affair

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.83 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · VIC 4-2-3-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · VIC

17 Barbero

Subs used · ARO

64'

Popovic ↑ ·

Fayed ↓

64'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Lee ↓

78'

Puche ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

83'

Fukui ↑ ·

Santos ↓

83'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

Subs used · VIC

75'

Carlos ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

75'

Fernandes ↑ ·

Toure ↓

75'

Varela ↑ ·

Pablo ↓

86'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Esteves ↓

90+1'

Bamba ↑ ·

Caseres ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 2 – 2 VIC

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.36

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 2 – 2

H. Lee

Assist · A. Trezza · 1–0

⚽

A. Trezza

2–0

⚽

12'

41'

⚽

Pablo

Assist · L. Esteves · 2–1

Half-time · 2 – 1

48'

⚽

Murilo de Souza

2–2

Omar Fayed

Yellow Card

▮

57'

B. Popovic ↓ · O. Fayed ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

75'

⇄

Ze Carlos ↓ · S. Garcia ↑

Substitution 1

75'

⇄

J. Fernandes ↓ · T. Toure ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

G. Varela ↓ · Pablo ↑

Substitution 3

Pedro Santos

Yellow Card

▮

77'

Puche ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

80'

▮

Facundo Cáseres

Yellow Card

T. Fukui ↓ · Pedro Santos ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

B. Mansilla ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

Espen Van Ee

Yellow Card

▮

86'

⇄

M. Fernandez ↓ · L. Esteves ↑

Substitution 4

Tiago Esgaio

Yellow Card

▮

90'

90+1'

⇄

M. Bamba ↓ · F. Caseres ↑

Substitution 5

Boris Popović

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

▮

Mohamed Bamba

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Arouca and GIL Vicente drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 1.36. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 9, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Lee (8'), A. Trezza (12'), Pablo (41'), Murilo de Souza (48').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.69 units (Brier 0.281).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.83	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.70	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.03	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.04	—	41%	Cashed	+1.04	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.26	—	36%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.88	—	44%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.26	—	83%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	62%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.42	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	87%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.41	—	26%	Cashed	+2.41	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.97	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.33	—	18%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Home Win	4.25	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.69u	+4% ROI