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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Estoril — Alverca

Estoril vs Alverca 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Estoril
Estoril
Home · last 5 L L D D L
Kick-off
Sat 27 Dec · 20:30
4:1
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota · Cascais Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 52% · book 2.31 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.78 ✗
Total goals
5
4 · 1
xG (open play)
1.30 – 0.75
Δ +0.55
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.38 — +7.8% better than the market.

Estoril holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Their attacking strength faces a solid but less potent Alverca defense, while Estoril’s form shows consistent momentum compared to Alverca’s mixed recent results. Expect a tactical battle with Estoril pressing forward and Alverca relying on a compact block and counterattacks.

  • Home side’s offensive edge likely to create chances
  • Alverca’s defensive resilience may limit goals
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.38 ✓ Cashed
AI 78% Implied 72% +0.38u
+38%
ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-3
EST · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · ALV 1 Robles 22 Carvalho 44 Boma 25 Bacher 24 Amaral 6 Orellana 10 Holsgrove 99 Guitane 14 Begraoui ⚽ 12 Carvalho 9 Marqués 13 Gomes 4 Naves 3 Martinez 33 Meupiyou 2 Touaizi 21 Abdulai 8 Amorim ⚽ 55 Chissumba 18 Lincoln 91 Lima 11 Nuozzi
Subs used · EST
57' Tsoungui ↑ · Carvalho ↓
68' Pizzi ↑ · Amaral ↓
68' Parente ↑ · Carvalho ↓
87' Lominadze ↑ · Jandro ↓
87' Peixinho ↑ · Marques ↓
Subs used · ALV
46' Marezi ↑ · Nuozzi ↓
61' Gui ↑ · Lincoln ↓
61' Leite ↑
74' Lima ↑ · Lima ↓
75' Gomez ↑ · Meupiyou ↓

Statistics

EST 4 – 1 ALV
64%
Possession (%)
36%
1.30
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.75
9
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
7
3
Shots off Target
4
6
Shots Inside Box
9
3
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
11
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
2
Yellow Cards
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

20 · 4 – 1
B. Meupiyou
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
36'
Y. Begraoui
2–0
⚽
43'
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⇄
Marezi ↓ · C. Nuozzi ↑
Substitution 1
Y. Begraoui
Assist · J. Carvalho · 3–0
⚽
47'
49'
▮
Lincoln
Yellow Card
Pedro Carvalho
Yellow Card
▮
52'
55'
▮
Nabil Touaizi
Yellow Card
A. Tsoungui ↓ · J. Carvalho ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
B. Meupiyou
Own goal · 4–0
⚽
60'
61'
⇄
D. Gui ↓ · Lincoln ↑
Substitution 2
61'
⇄
T. Leite ↓ ·
Substitution 3
67'
⚽
Amorim
Assist · S. Abdulai · 4–1
Pizzi ↓ · P. Amaral ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
T. Parente ↓ · P. Carvalho ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
74'
⇄
Felipe Lima ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑
Substitution 4
75'
⇄
S. Gomez ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑
Substitution 5
86'
▮
Julián Jose Martinez
Yellow Card
N. Lominadze ↓ · Jandro ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
Peixinho ↓ · A. Marques ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
Antef Tsoungui
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Estoril beat Alverca 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.30 to 0.75. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.30 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Meupiyou (36'), Y. Begraoui (43'), Y. Begraoui (47'), B. Meupiyou (60'), Amorim (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.43 units (Brier 0.206).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.31 — 52% Cashed +1.31 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.78 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.13 — 43% Cashed +1.13 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.87 — 48% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.63 — 52% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.67 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.35 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 — 78% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.25 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 — 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.37 — 69% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.10 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.46 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.80 — 23% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Away Win 3.40 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.43u −8% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
EST – ALV @ 1.38
+7.8%
Edge
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