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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Nacional — Santa Clara

Nacional vs Santa Clara 3:3: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Jan · 15:30
3:3
Full-time
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
D W D W L Away · last 5
Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.73 ✗
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 37% · book 2.57 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 36% · book 2.61 ✓
Total goals
6
3 · 3
xG (open play)
1.98 – 2.40
Δ −0.42
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.58 — +7.1% better than the market.

Nacional holds a clear quality edge and a solid defensive record, which should help them control the game tempo against Santa Clara. Despite Santa Clara’s slightly better recent points per game, Nacional’s home momentum and defensive solidity suggest a compact, low-scoring affair. The odds hint at a cautious pace, favoring Nacional’s ability to limit chances.

  • Home defensive strength vs away attack
  • Recent form favors Santa Clara but with inconsistency
  • Likely tactical focus on defensive organization and set-piece threats

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.58 ✓ Cashed
AI 68% Implied 63% +0.58u
+58%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NAC 4-4-2 · SAN 3-1-4-2
NAC · 4-4-2 3-1-4-2 · SAN 1 Kaique 2 Aurélio 34 Santos 38 Vitor 5 Gomes 99 Ruan 6 Dias 28 Liziero 11 Bóia 8 Baeza 9 Ramírez ⚽ 1 Batista 23 Lima 13 Rocha 94 Silva 65 Tavares 42 Soares 35 Serginho 77 Klismahn 64 Victor ⚽ 70 Lopes ⚽ 10 Silva
Subs used · NAC
46' Junior ↑ · Ruan ↓
46' Deivison ↑ · Aurelio ↓
76' Witi ↑ · Boia ↓
76' Labidi ↑ · Baeza ↓
90' Sousa ↑ · Liziero ↓
Subs used · SAN
65' Firmino ↑ · Silva ↓
65' Brenner ↑ · Tavares ↓
76' Manoel ↑ · Klismahn ↓
76' Ferreira ↑ · Serginho ↓
83' Torrao ↑ · Victor ↓

Statistics

NAC 3 – 3 SAN
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.98
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.40
13
Total Shots
21
5
Shots on Target
6
5
Shots off Target
11
9
Shots Inside Box
13
2
Corner Kicks
8
1
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
11
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
4
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

24 · 3 – 3
4'
⚽
Vinicius Lopes
0–1
Léo Santos
Yellow Card
▮
6'
15'
⚽
Paulo Victor
0–2
J. Ramirez
Assist · Paulinho Boia · 1–2
⚽
21'
24'
▮
Sidney Lima
Yellow Card
Pablo Ruan
Yellow Card
▮
30'
J. Ramirez (P)
Penalty · 2–2
⚽
38'
Half-time · 2 – 2
Daniel Junior ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Deivison ↓ · J. Aurelio ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
J. Ramirez
Assist · Liziero · 3–2
⚽
50'
52'
▮
José Tavares
Yellow Card
65'
⇄
Adriano Firmino ↓ · H. Silva ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
Brenner ↓ · J. Tavares ↑
Substitution 2
71'
▮
Gustavo Klismahn
Yellow Card
Matheus Dias
Yellow Card
▮
72'
Witi ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
C. Labidi ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
76'
⇄
Elias Manoel ↓ · Gustavo Klismahn ↑
Substitution 3
76'
⇄
P. Ferreira ↓ · Serginho ↑
Substitution 4
Kaique
Yellow Card
▮
81'
83'
⇄
Welinton Torrao ↓ · Paulo Victor ↑
Substitution 5
A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
90'
⚽
Elias Manoel
Assist · Gabriel Batista · 3–3
90+5'
▮
Luís Rocha
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

Nacional and Santa Clara drew 3–3. At half-time it was 2–2.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 13, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Vinicius Lopes (4'), Paulo Victor (15'), J. Ramirez (21'), J. Ramirez (38'), J. Ramirez (50'), Elias Manoel (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.54 units (Brier 0.258).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.73 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.57 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.61 — 36% Cashed +1.61 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.10 — 43% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.26 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.47 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.70 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.58 — 68% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
Home Win 3.30 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.54 — 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.50 — 63% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Draw 3.08 — 29% Cashed +2.08 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.36 — 61% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.11 — 87% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.17 — 82% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.50 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 5.20 — 18% Cashed +4.20 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.54u +9% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
NAC – SAN @ 1.58
+7.1%
Edge
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